AMES, Iowa -- President Obama will give his first State of the Union address Wednesday and is expected to outline an ambitious agenda for the coming year amid his falling approval ratings. Iowa State University political scientists see Obama using the critical speech to remind Americans that he inherited a collapsing economy, two wars and numerous other problems.
"He [Obama] will lament the Republican blockade of most of his legislative initiatives, especially health reform, and call them 'The Party of NO,'" said Steffen Schmidt, a University Professor of political science who is a political analyst for a number of news media outlets. He will be a featured live blogger for The Des Moines Register during the State of the Union address.
"He will then outline how he saved the economy from a second great depression, how he's winding down the 'optional' war in Iraq -- with U.S. casualties drastically down -- and why the U.S. is returning to the 'necessary' war in Afghanistan to stabilize that country and Pakistan," he continued. "He will explain why health care reform is urgently necessary to stem the financial bleeding of the nation in skyrocketing health costs, bringing health care to the millions who are not covered."
Approval ratings rival other recent presidents
Dianne Bystrom, director of Iowa State's Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics, reports that while Obama's current job approval rating is low (currently 50 percent), it is similar to the first-year ratings of President Clinton (53 percent) and President Reagan (49 percent). And she sees other similarities between them.
"Obama and Reagan were elected into office in tough economic times, and President Clinton devoted much of his first year in office attempting to reform health care," she said. "All campaigned on reshaping government and all learned that reshaping government takes time. Their poll numbers reflect the impatience of Americans for achieving change, especially in tough economic times."
Bystrom says Obama can acknowledge the frustrations of Americans in his low approval ratings, but remind them that other "change" presidents faced similar disapproval early into their administrations.
And those presidents didn't take office while the U.S. was at war. Obama's not only had to navigate the war effort, but also respond to a heightened terrorism threat in the wake of the failed Detroit plane bombing last month.
Yet in spite of those concerns, James McCormick, ISU professor and chair of political science, sees Obama emphasizing diplomacy before defense when he addresses foreign policy.
"I believe President Obama is likely to highlight his efforts to reengage the United States with the rest of the world and his perceived success in doing so over the past year," said McCormick, author of the book "American Foreign Policy and Process." "I also believe that those comments will be juxtaposed against some that he made in Oslo at the Nobel Prize ceremony in which he pointed to the need, for just cause, to use force of arms and to fight wars and the important role that the United States continues to play in maintaining peace and security."
Emphasis on a strong and legal defense
McCormick says President Obama wants to convey that the United States remains a principal actor -- one that's not afraid to act -- in foreign policy matters.
"But he should point out that in contrast to his predecessor, he will only do so in combination with others and within the constraints of the law," he said. "Hence, he wants the United States to be engaged in foreign policy but not in a singular way. That will remain his mantra."
He may also choose to emphasize his role as a political uniter, according to Bystrom.
"He campaigned on working with both political parties, but perhaps found out that is harder to accomplish in action than words," she said. "My guess is that there is more cooperation behind the scenes than we see in media coverage. Maybe he needs specific examples of areas in which Democrats and Republicans are in agreement."
Schmidt predicts that the president will close with an outline of his plans for strengthening the economy and how he will work with banks and business to jump-start job creation.
"That's the biggest problem facing Americans at home
and facing Democrats in November of 2010 when all members of
the House and a third of the Senate are up for
re-election," Schmidt said.
